Erling Haaland Goals Projection – How Many Goals Can Haaland Score This Season?

30th July 2022, Community Shield, Man City v Liverpool. Haaland missed a sitter, turned around, and had a cheeky grin on his face. “You guys have no idea what’s in store” must have been the thought in his mind.  7 Premier League games later, and the football community has collectively had to slowly lift their jaws off the ground. 11 goals and 1 assist later, he’s silenced anyone who doubted his ability.

Tall, robust, pacey, and deadly in front of goal, Haaland is one of the most complete no9’s this league has ever seen. The goals we’ve seen thus far have been Haaland showing the plethora of skills in his arsenal. Headers, left foot, right foot, ball in behind, ball played to his feet, he can score from any situation. The hunger to just score goals is something the Premier League as a whole has missed. As football, in general, has moved towards no9s who are more involved in the play, it’s almost refreshing to see a player like him.

Every match he scores, he seems to be breaking a record. The Norwegian star is the quickest player in Premier League history to have scored 10 goals in a season. He broke Aguero’s record for scoring the most number of goals in the first 5 games. He needed the fewest games to score two hat-tricks. Nothing seems to be able to stop him.

Also read: Analytics Report: Premier League Player Of The Week – Matchday 7 – Heung-min Son

What Do The Numbers Say?

So now, as the Premier League takes a break, let’s dive deeper into the numbers. To be honest, they’re just ridiculous.

He is exceptionally clinical, scoring 10 from 15 shots on target gives him a conversion rate of 66%. He also has taken the most number of shots in the league. It is unlikely that he will keep this up for an entire season. But even if this drops down a bit, it is still mind-blowing and will see him score a boatload.

Is This The Best Start To A Season Of Any PL Striker Ever?

Just to put into perspective the mercurial start he has had in the Premier League, we put together this chart comparing him to some of the greatest goalscorers this league has ever seen. We’ve got Shearer and Henry often considered the best to ever do it in England. Along with Owen, Cole, and Fowler; great strikers from back in the day. Finally, we’ve got some modern greats like Aguero, Rooney, Defoe, and Kane to compare Haaland’s number’s with.

It’s clear as day that Haaland’s explosive start to life in England has overshadowed those of these greats. Add to that, he has already scored 2 hattricks. We can see why Man City fans are salivating at the thought of Haaland linking up with the likes of KDB, Foden, and Bernado, among others as the season progresses.

Haaland has scored 10 goals from an xG of 6.4. Extrapolated over 38 games, he will have an xG of 42! That itself is 10 more than the current record holder Salah got with 32.

10 goals, 7 games, records broken already, but over a season, wait for it, 66 goals.

The record for the most goals in the top 5 leagues for a 38-game season belongs to Messi, who got 50. Will Haaland smash that record by more than 15 goals? It seems improbable. It all depends on if he stays fit and gets the minutes. So we must add that he has never played more than 28 games in a season.

ESPN seem to agree with our prediction, which is strictly based on the data and also explores why Haaland’s explosive start to the season could see records shattered come the end of the season.

Pep Is Showing His Tactical Flexibility

Yes, Haaland is a machine with the sole aim of scoring goals, but that’s also dependent on how well the players around him adapt to fit his style of play. It’s exciting to notice how open Pep Guardiola has been with the idea of changing his entire system to maximize the output of one player.

City won the Premier League last season as one of the best teams in the world without the need for a striker. Pep has been one who emphasizes the importance of dominating the ball and keeping possession. But here, he seems to be willingly playing a more high-risk, vertical style of play that we haven’t really seen him do earlier.

City now have a fixed focal point in attack, and the aim is to find Haaland and let him do the rest. The combination of a manager like Pep Guardiola and a gifted player like Haaland means trouble for every other team in the league.

Haaland and Pep could very realistically make the Premier League a one-team league.

So Finally, Will Haaland Break Salah’s Record This Season?

Based on the numbers and the eye test, I’m inclined to say yes, he will. The man is just built differently and has the best “supporting cast”, if you can even call them that, available. It is the perfect storm, and the season will end with a few more records tumbling.