Premier League: Mid-Season Predictions 2022/23 – TFTWC Writers’ Pick

With 2022 now coming to an end, the Premier League has reached its midway point after an exhilarating World Cup. What will the new year bring? Can we expect more ups & downs & surprises as the season progresses?  Who will win the coveted Premier League trophy by the end of the 2022-23 campaign?

The TFTWC writers voice their opinions & give their mid-season predictions for what remains of the 2022-23 Premier League season.

Also read: PL: Boxing Day Round Up 2022

Rohit Ravi

Winners

Manchester City

Arsenal might be on top of the table right now, but when the European fixtures come into play in February and the toll of the World Cup kicks in, Man City will finally kick into gear while the Gunners will flounder.

City will win the league. Pep will sing ‘Wonderwall’ by Oasis again and butcher it again. Jokes aside, the only thing City lacked was a ruthless goalscorer after Aguero left. And now they have a better upgrade in Erling Haaland. I struggle to find a weakness in this City side. But this time, they will have to come from behind to win the title, and if they do that, it’ll solidify their greatness.

City’s bench strength and knowing how to deal with the pressure will come to the fore as Pep’s men will win a record 3rd PL title in a row come May. But Arteta’s young warriors will finish a close 2nd.

Top Four

Arsenal

Arsenal would’ve hoped for a top 4 finish at the start of the campaign. At Christmas, they’re leading the league by 5 points. They might not win the title according to me, but they’re definitely playing CL football again. With a core of young players who play Arteta’s way, this is a unit that has ambition and togetherness.

While Man City and Arsenal will comfortably finish in 1st and 2nd, the battle for the next 2 places is going to be intense and could go down to the wire.

Liverpool 

Liverpool have won 3 on the bounce and look resurgent again, with Salah fresh and ready after the World Cup break. They are peaking at the right time and Klopp’s men have a way of battling their way into the top 4 every season.

Newcastle

Newcastle will be the surprise entry into the top 4, as the Saudi-owned club will have made its first foray in years into the big leagues again. The Magpies are solid at the back and with Almiron adding to the goals alongside Wilson, they look like a real threat. Spurs and Man United will come close, but their inconsistency will lead to them finishing outside the top 4, followed by a re-building Chelsea.

Relegation Spots – Bottom Three

Wolves

To be honest, a number of clubs could be in the relegation fight this season to stay away from 18th place. Despite recently recruiting a good manager in Lopetegui, Wolves just seem to lack any goalscoring edge whatsoever. With their defense not having Coady to lead them anymore, they can’t keep relying on 1-0 wins forever. Unless they spend in January for a striker, they’re going down. But if they manage to stay up, Everton better watch out.

Southampton

It’s easy to blame Hassenhutl for Southampton’s problems, but their board and owners are also to blame for it. After letting an in-form Ings depart to Villa, they have still not replaced him with a reputed goalscorer. Nathan Jones might be a bright young manager but he is not ready for the relegation fight just yet. They will finish 19th.

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest are done for all money in the Premiership. It might have been a long-awaited return for the first time since 1999, but their stockpile of new signings haven’t gelled or performed well enough so far as they sit in 19th place. Steve Cooper’s inability to find his best eleven and grind out results will see them go down.

Golden Boot

Erling Haaland

If I were living under a rock, I’d have picked Kane. But I’m not living under a rock so the obvious pick is Haaland. If the Norwegian goal machine doesn’t win the golden boot this season, something must go terribly wrong for either Haaland or Man City, which is just a pipe dream for all other teams wanting to see City fail.

Most Assists

Kevin De Bruyne

Part of the reason why Haaland has scored a truckload of goals is because of the talent he has in midfield providing him with first-class service. KdB has 9 assists already. As Haaland racks up the goals, the Belgian playmaker will also bag more assists and possibly even beat his own record of 20 assists in a season.

Young Player Of The Season

Bukayo Saka

It feels weird categorising Saka as a young player because the 21-year-old is good enough to be a contender for player of the year. The Arsenal forward has more than 5 goals and 6 assists already. At such a young age, he is already both Arsenal’s and England’s talisman and could reach incredible heights in the second half of the season.

Surprise Performer Of The Season

Miguel Almiron

When Grealish joked about Almiron in the wake of City’s title win last year, nobody expected him to perform at the level he has been this season. The Paraguayan perhaps took Grealish’s jibe close to his heart and has produced performances that have far eclipsed that of the most expensive English player in history. Almiron has 9 goals for Newcastle this season and doesn’t look like stopping any time soon. His goals have had a touch of quality to them as well. Maybe teams can start recruiting Grealish to make jokes about underperforming players to see them become world-class after his comments.

Player Of The Season

Erling Haaland

No prizes for guessing this one, it’s him again. With 20 goals already after featuring in 14 games, he is already in the running for the player of the season award just halfway into the campaign. Once he breaks the record goal tally of 33 set by Salah, he will seal his place in PL history.

Manager Of The Season

Eddie Howe

Eddie Howe has managed to get the best out of a previously underperforming team, albeit with some investment. But it is always easy to buy good players and not play them to their strengths. He has utilised new signings Guimaraes, Trippier, Botman, Burn, Wood, and Pope to perfection. He has even managed to get Joelinton and Almiron to score a ton of goals. He has always been a talented up-and-coming British manager ever since his Bournemouth days, but if he manages to get a top 4 spot with Newcastle, he will firmly be in the reckoning as an elite manager.

JX Chen

Winners

Manchester City

Manchester City currently sit second in the Premier League table, poised to overtake Arsenal and win their third consecutive Premier League title, bringing their total trophy haul to seven titles. Manchester City are arguably the best attacking team in the league right now, leading the league in goals for and third in goals against.

Manchester City’s possession-centric style of play, in which they have an average of 66.1% possession per game, more than any other team in the league, has led to an impressive season. With world-class players like Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne leading the goal-scoring and assists charts, it is not an inconceivable prediction that the Citizens will bring glory to the blue side of Manchester again this season.

Top Four

Arsenal

Arsenal have made a strong start to the season, topping the table in terms of xG and ranking second in terms of xGA, with 28.3 and 12.9 respectively. They are, however, still a few steps behind Manchester City, who have an xG of 27.6 and outperform them in xGA with only 11.2.

A key injury to Gabriel Jesus, who started every game prior to the World Cup break and scored 5 goals and assisted 5 goals in those 14 games, will undoubtedly impede Arsenal’s progress in the second half of the season. As a result, I believe Arsenal still lack the quality to beat Manchester City in this season’s title race, but the Gunners’ performance thus far sets the precednce of what is to come in the coming seasons under Arteta.

Newcastle United

The recent Saudi cash injection into Newcastle United has certainly gotten many fans excited about the club’s future, but few expected the Magpies to improve so quickly. Newcastle were 19th in the table this time last year, but now they are currently only 7 points off the top spot.

Newcastle’s “gung-ho” style of play, which sees them rank fourth in terms of passes per defensive action (PPDA), is a rather telling stat & they’re a joy to watch. They are also a very dangerous team on set-pieces, with the second most attempted corner kicks in the league, thanks to Kieran Trippier’s incredible deliveries into the box. This season’s performance for the Magpies is not an overachievement, and it demonstrates Eddie Howe’s ability to lead a team to success so quickly.

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs have improved dramatically since Nuno’s departure. With the most prolific attacking duo of the modern era, they rank second only to Liverpool in terms of shots and shots on target percentage, highlighting the clinicality of the Son-Kane duo.

Spurs’ creation from wide areas is also among the most dangerous in the Premier League, with their wingbacks playing a significant role in the league-high 342 crosses, 51 of which ended in the penalty area. This team has clearly adapted well to Conte’s distinct style of play, and it would be reasonable to expect them to qualify for the Champions League this season.

Relegation Spots – Bottom Three

Everton

Everton are currently 17th in the table, but with the third-fewest goals in the league, and I believe they will be relegated by the end of the season. In truth, Everton are not particularly strong defensively and are frequently rescued by England first-choice Pickford, who has made the second most saves in the league, trailing only to Brentford’s Raya.

However, Everton’s main problem is the lack of quality in attack, especially with key injuries to important players like Dominic Calvert-Lewin and the departure of Richarlison in the summer transfer window. Everton have underperformed their xG by 6.1 goals, emphasising their lack of quality and clinicality in the attacking third.

Everton are also an extremely error-prone team, with the second most errors in the league this season. So, I think this is the season that we finally bid farewell to one of the Premier League’s mainstays, and welcome in new blood from the Championship.

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest’s investment has clearly not paid off after spending approximately 145 million British pounds on 22 players during the summer transfer window. Lying in 19th midway through the season, with only three wins to their name, Forest are one of the favourites to be sent straight back down into the Championship.

In fact, they have the second-lowest number of goals scored and the second-highest number of goals conceded in the league, with 9 and 11, respectively. The fact that Steve Cooper has not been sacked demonstrates the board’s faith in him, and I believe they will settle for him as a long-term manager and keep him on board even if they are relegated this season.

Bournemouth

Although this choice may surprise some, I believe Bournemouth lack the quality to remain in the Premier League this season. They are 14th in the table, just three points above the relegation zone and four points above the bottom. This season’s relegation battle is dangerously close, and I predict Bournemouth will finish at the bottom of the table.

Bournemouth have conceded the most goals in the league, 34 in 16 games. They currently outperform their xG by 5.9 goals and are ranked last in the league in terms of xG. Apart from a lack of attacking threat, Bournemouth’s most glaring issue is their abject performance when defending corner kicks. This season, Bournemouth have conceded a season-high 9 goals from corner kicks, two more than second-placed Brentford. I seriously doubt Bournemouth’s ability to stay in the Premier League this season and believe the Cherries should hope for a miracle in order to avoid relegation.

Golden Boot

Erling Haaland

Erling Haaland is the clear favourite for the golden boot this season. With 20 goals, the Norwegian giant is already far ahead of his competitors. He has a remarkable rate of 1.56 goals per 90 minutes, while Rodrigo, in second place, only has a rate of 0.91. Despite the fact that Haaland outperforms his xG by 6.9 goals, this outperformance can be attributed to Haaland’s world-class finishing ability and clinicality rather than luck. It would take an absolute miracle, or disaster for that matter, for any other player to win the golden boot this season, and I believe Haaland is the most likely & obvious winner.

Most Assists

Kevin De Bruyne

Kevin De Bruyne currently leads the assists charts with 9 assists, with Saka close behind with 6 assists. However, with Haaland vying for the golden boot, De Bruyne’s assist total can only rise in tandem with Haaland’s goal total. In fact, many statistics point to De Bruyne as one of the frontrunners for the playmaker award. The Belgian legend is miles ahead of his competition in terms of key passes, passes into the penalty area, through balls, shot-creating actions, and goal-creating actions, and should take home the award this season.

Young Player of the Season

Bukayo Saka

Bukayo Saka is without a doubt one of the most talented young players in the Premier League right now. At the age of 21, he is already a World Cup star, and has played a key role in Arsenal’s stellar performances this season. Saka’s performances so far have been more than impressive, with his 6 assists ranking second only to De Bruyne’s 9, and his goals+assists tally ranking joint 5th in the league. Saka also ranks second in goal-creating actions, frequently setting up his teammates for goals. His outstanding performances this season are likely to earn him the young player of the season award, displacing current holder Phil Foden.

Surprise Performer Of The Season

Miguel Almiron

Miguel Almiron, a former winger for a mid-table team who scored the odd goal or two throughout the season, has had an incredible season this year. Almiron finished last season with 1 goal and no assists in 30 games, but this season he has 9 goals and 1 assist in just 16 games. Not only is Almiron’s goal output impressive, but his qualities off the ball are what make him such a dangerous player. His ability to use his cover shadow to effectively block off passing lanes when pressing meshes extremely well with Eddie Howe’s high-pressing style of football. Because of his tenacity and eagerness, he is frequently the player who initiates the press for Newcastle, making him a completely different player than in previous seasons.

Player of the Season

Kieran Trippier

Personally, I would vote for Erling Haaland again for player of the season, but I will take a chance and predict that Kieran Trippier will be named player of the season by its end. He is an important player for Newcastle United and has been one of the league’s best fullbacks this season. Trippier ranks third in xG & xA, trailing only De Bruyne and Fernandes in a metric dominated by attacking midfielders. Trippier’s delivery from corners is pivotal for Newcastle’s chances, and he also has the most corners taken in the league this season.

Trippier is not only important to their offence, but he also ranks fourth in interceptions and third in touches, making him important to their defence and build-up as well. Trippier, their first signing of the Saudi era, is one of Howe’s most important players and could well be named player of the season this campaign.

Manager of the Season

Eddie Howe

This season, Eddie Howe wins this award for me, regardless of where Newcastle finish. Howe’s abilities have been on full display this season, daring to make bold tactical decisions and making the most of the players available. Converting Joelinton from an underperforming striker to an industrious, hardworking midfielder has worked wonders for this Newcastle side.

He has also given seemingly mediocre players like Fabian Schar and Miguel Almiron new life, transforming them into world-class players capable of competing with Manchester City and Liverpool. Newcastle are not only incredibly entertaining to watch under Eddie Howe, but they also produce results and are capable of picking apart top teams and forcing them to crumble under the intense pressure of Newcastle’s newfound tenacity.

John Mathew

Winners

Manchester City

As much as the heart yearns for the ultimate revival for Arsenal that will see the Gunners return to their past glory, it just seems to be yet another season that sees City win. Although City have succumbed to the odd losses and draws & a 5-point gap is indeed a task to catch up on, but given the 2 games at the Emirates and Etihad still left to play, it could get really intense towards the final stages of the season. Arsenal could give City a run for their money, but a certain Haaland could just nick it from them.

Top Four

Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle, and Liverpool

Newcastle could board the plane to Europe earlier than many expected. Judging by the games so far, they have the quality, efficiency, and mentality to do so. City and Arsenal have been a class above but the Tyneside outfit are not that far off. Liverpool have been under par so far, but they are active in the market & moving quick for new signings and that could just be the differential factor that pushes them ahead of Tottenham, United, Chelsea, and Brighton.

Relegation Spots – Bottom Three

Everton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth

It’s sad to call it but I do feel the Toffees will fall from the first division for the first time since the Premier League began. Their last drop was in the 1954-55 season. Nottingham Forest seem shaky too despite all the money they spent, & it would be a nice story if they stayed up, but with how things are panning out, their chances seem slim. Bournemouth, on the other hand, have been one of the worst sides in the league statistically, but find themselves in 14th place as of now, largely owing to their ability to scrap results and points. That style usually does not sustain over the course of a season and poor results are expected to catch up to them.

Golden Boot

Erling Haaland

We all know the answer to this one. Barring any injuries, Erling Haaland is well on his way to winning the golden boot. Last season’s golden boot went to Son and Salah as they had scored 23 over the course of the season. Haaland is already on 20 and there are 23 games left for City to play. 20 goals from an xG of 13. An overperformance of +7. The Norwegian is a freak of nature, & an unstoppable force, and he’s miles ahead of second-placed Harry Kane who has 13.

Most Assists

Kevin De Bruyne

This too does not seem to be much of an argument and the usual suspect is yet again Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian might not have had the best World Cup campaign but his influence on Man City is unparalleled to anyone else. 9 assists so far, 51 chances created and an xA of 7.3, KDB’s numbers are only expected to grow, even more so with Haaland & Alvarez up front banging them in.

Young Player Of The Season

Bukayo Saka

Arsenal’s own golden boy, Bukayo Saka is having the season of his life so far. Being nothing short of electric on the wings for the Gunners, he’s been key in their push for the title. Although the World Cup might be seen as a failure, Saka had an incredible tournament individually and is in brilliant form heading into the second half of the season. The sky is the limit for this starlet.

Surprise Performer Of The Season

Miguel Almiron

When the Saudi consortium took over at St. James’ Park, the expectation was yet another overhaul and big money, big-name signings as the ownership went in search of results. Although, what followed was the revival of an apparently failed import i.e. Miguel ‘Miggy’ Almiron. Expectations were high on Tyneside when he came in from the MLS but it’s only now that they have seen it in fruition. With 9 goals and an assist, along with a goal in the Boxing Day round of fixtures against Leicester; surely no one saw this coming from him.

Player Of The Season

Erling Haaland

If things continue in the same manner, this category has its clear winner too. Yes, it’s Erling Haaland. With over 1.5 goals scored per 90, with the assumption that he continues at the same rate; he’s on course to finish on 50+ goals by the end. Last year, Graeme Souness was heard saying “The guy at Dortmund, big Norwegian, there’s a question mark against him, he’s never played our football.” How things have changed since.

Manager Of The Season

Mikel Arteta

There are many possible candidates for this award. Pep with his City machine, Eddie Howe and him doing wonders at Newcastle, Erik ten Hag who is actually giving hope to United fans by seeing and engaging progressive, offensive, and well-structured football. But for me, it has to be Mikel Arteta. Many questioned his ability to lead, to implement his ideas, and his tactical nous. He has answered them all in spectacular fashion. Arteta is no longer Pep’s assistant who got the big job at Arsenal; He is Mikel Arteta, head coach of Arsenal football club and the head of their blooming project.