Premier League xG v GF: How Clinical Are The Prem Teams?

The term xG in football is an abbreviation which stands for ‘expected goals’. It is a statistical measurement of the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored.

xG is an analytical view of how good a player or team’s finishing ability is in front of goal. xG these days also accounts for the number of defenders in front of the shooter, the angle, and the goalkeeper’s position and hence is a helpful metric while analysing how clinical a team is in front of goal.

Also read: FPL: TFTWC FPL Analytics Report (Part I) – GW 1 to GW 4

Here we’ve mapped out how the Premier League teams have performed relative to their xG up to gameweek 5.

To no one’s surprise, it’s Manchester City (xG 12.8/GF 18) and Liverpool(xG 10.1/GF 15) who are overperforming their xG the most. History has shown that this is sustainable and is a testament to the finishing of the likes of Haaland, Alvarez, Salah, and Diaz.

Brentford(xG 7.8/GF 10) and Southampton’s (xG 4.7/GF 7) overperformance is a bit worrying. This may be more of a hot streak for their forwards and is unsustainable.

Arsenal(xG 10.5/GF 13) on the other hand are only slightly overperforming their xG. This backs their strong start to the season and if their forwards stay fit and firing could see them push Man City and Liverpool for the title.

Everton(xG 6.2/GF 4), West Ham(xG 4.7/GF 2), and Wolves(xG 5.0/GF 2) seem to be struggling to put chances away as you’d expect them to. It is a sign of their teams lacking a clinical no9. So far in the league West Ham and Wolves have scored 2 goals each while Everton have 4. It’s been a worrying start for these clubs.

Aston Villa(xG 4.3/GF 4), Bournemouth(xG 1.8/GF 2), and Leicester(xG 3.8/GF 6) are teams that are in a worrying situation. Villa have slightly underperformed their xG but they have been lacking in creativity. Buendia and Coutinho aren’t really playing well and Gerrard is under real pressure.

Bournemouth’s board didn’t prepare the team for the Prem. They have a championship-level squad and will struggle to stay up. Leicester City also have had an awful transfer window signing just 1 player. Their squad is weaker than the one from last season, and Brendan Rodgers has also been vocal about his concerns.

Tottenham(xG 7.5/GF 10) and Newcastle(xG 6.7/GF 7) have overperformed their xG by a bit, something that they can maintain over the course of the season Kane is an elite operator while Isak’s performance against Liverpool certainly got the Toon army excited.

Chelsea(xG 6.8/GF 6) and Manchester United(xG 6.3/GF 5) have performed below expectations and it is reflected here. Tuchel has still not been able to get his frontline to gel well while Ten Hag needs to figure out how to incorporate Ronaldo into this attack to get them to convert the chances the team is generating.

Brighton(xG 7.8/GF 6) and Fulham(xG 6.9/GF 8), both have had a great start to the season. Potter’s men have almost become a meme for how they are perennially underperforming their xG but what he has managed to do this season is no joke. Especially when you consider they sold two of their best players and are still 4th in the Premier League table.

Fulham were tipped to go straight back down but Mitrovic had other ideas. The Serb already has 5 league goals and has helped his side to 8th in the table currently.

Leeds(xG 7.5/GF 8) have overperformed their xG, although only by 0.5 goals. The Leeds attack has found the back of the net quite consistently so far this season. However, their top-performing striker Rodrigo’s shoulder injury could affect their goalscoring threat as the season continues.

Crystal Palace(xG 6.7/GF 7) and Nottingham Forest(xG 4.1/GF 2) both suffered losses to Man City recently and have had a similar start to the season. Cooper has been handed a whole new squad this summer and the board have gone all out in their attempt to stay up. The manager still needs to find a way to get the best of this group of players.

Palace on the other hand have been impressive but don’t have the results to show for it. Against both Arsenal and City, they played very well in the first half but couldn’t hold on and get the three points.