Predicting The Top 5 Premier League Strikers 2022/23 Other Than Erling Haaland

The Premier League this season has been rife with top quality strikers, with Haaland being the most notable example. The football world at large has predicted him to break Salah’s PL record for the maximum amount of goals in a single season. Some have even tipped him to score a ludicrous 50 league goals judging by how he’s played so far.

Also read: Erling Haaland Goals Projection – How Many Goals Can Haaland Score This Season?

But apart from the Man City goal machine, there have been many other forwards who have impressed as well. We play with some numbers and predictive algorithms and analyse 5 of the next-best strikers in the league. In this article, we extrapolate charts based on data collected until gameweek 9, and predict their possible goal tally for the 2022/23 PL season.

Gabriel Jesus (GF – 5, xG – 5.4)

Summer signing Gabriel Jesus has hit the ground running with a great start to his Arsenal career. In terms of goals scored, Jesus has 5 so far. He is the only striker in this list that has an xG almost on par with the goals scored in each game, except for the Leicester game where he scored a brace by exceeding his xG. Going by the numbers, he is on course to score 23 goals in his debut season for the Gunners.

Roberto Firmino (GF – 6, xG – 2.9)

A surprise name on this list is Liverpool’s Firmino. Before the start of the season, everyone would’ve expected either Salah, Jota or even Nunez to feature on this list over him. But the Brazilian has rolled back the years to find his best form for the Merseysiders. With 6 goals overall, he has massively outperformed his xG since gameweek 4 (which was when he got his first goal of the campaign).

This factor, along with his lesser minutes in comparison to the rest means that he is predicted to bag 18 goals this season, the least value of all the predictions in the list. Nonetheless, it is still impressive considering his decreased game time.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (GF – 6, xG – 5)

Until gameweek 6, the Serbian striker had scored in almost every game except for one away at Wolves where he missed a penalty. With such a record, he is another striker from a lowly-ranked team that has exceeded expectations and has started the season on a high.

So far, he has only marginally exceeded his xG in games. If not for his absence due to injury in the last 2 games, he could’ve had more. Our magic hat tips him to score a whopping 24 goals this season if he continues at the same rate.

Ivan Toney (GF – 6, xG – 4.4)

The Bees marksman has an impressive 6 goals this term already. But the frequency of his goals over the course of the season hasn’t been consistent, with half of them coming in his hat trick against Leeds.

He is also another striker who has outperformed his xG massively with some clinical finishing for a Brentford side who aren’t as creative as the other teams on this list. Considering all this, it is an impressive feat from Toney, who is predicted to score 19 goals overall.

Harry Kane (GF – 8, xG – 6.1)

Despite the buzz around Haaland’s goal-scoring record, Premier League veteran Harry Kane has been silently stacking up his goal tally this season with consistent performances. With the number rising to 8 after his winner against Brighton, the Spurs talisman is expected to score a staggering 30 goals this season.

He has outperformed his xG ever so slightly but has been efficient throughout scoring in all but 2 gameweeks this campaign. With his goal scoring record over the years, there is no doubting that Kane could justify the stats and hit the predicted figures.